US Launches Trade Probes Against China Ahead of Key Summit
By John Nada·Mar 12, 2026·4 min read
The U.S. ramps up trade probes against China under Section 301, complicating relations ahead of a crucial summit. Tariffs remain a key tool for negotiations.
With a high-stakes summit in Beijing less than three weeks away, the U.S. has launched sweeping trade investigations that put China squarely in its crosshairs, adding a new layer of friction to an already complicated relationship. The probes, which will be conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, aim to identify unfair trade practices, particularly structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors. This approach signifies a strategic escalation by the U.S., as it attempts to exert pressure on China in the lead-up to critical diplomatic discussions.
Dan Wang, the China director at the political consultancy Eurasia Group, noted that while the investigations encompass multiple trading partners, they distinctly target China. This is largely due to China's well-documented issues such as overcapacity and forced labor. Historically, these have been longstanding grievances that the U.S. has emphasized in its trade negotiations.
As President Trump's negotiating position has been weakened by ongoing military aggression in Iran, he is relying on tariffs as a primary pressure tool, aiming to establish a credible threat before the upcoming summit. Wang highlighted that this strategy of maximizing leverage before major bilateral meetings has become somewhat standard practice. The recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to strike down Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs has added an element of urgency to the investigations.
This ruling has curtailed Trump's ability to impose tariffs at will, unintentionally giving China a boost in leverage ahead of the summit. As a result, the Trump administration is pivoting to other tools to continue its tariff agenda. Lynn Song, chief economist at ING Bank, remarked that tariffs remain a crucial card for Trump to play in negotiations, underscoring their importance in the current geopolitical landscape. Section 301 permits the president to impose levies on countries found to have engaged in unfair trade practices without congressional approval.
This law has been a cornerstone of Trump’s trade policy since his first term, when he invoked Section 301 to levy significant tariffs against China. Such actions were framed as part of a broader strategy to address what the U.S. perceives as systemic trade imbalances. Despite criticism from global trading partners, including the U.S., regarding its over-reliance on external demand, China's export machine has continued to thrive.
Recent data indicates that Chinese exports surged by 21.8% in the first two months compared to the previous year, resulting in a record trade surplus of $213.6 billion. This remarkable performance highlights China’s resilience in the face of international scrutiny and its ability to maintain economic momentum even amid escalating tensions. As these trade probes unfold, they inject fresh uncertainty into an already complicated diplomatic backdrop and a fragile trade truce between the world’s two largest economies. The gap between both sides' agendas for the summit is reportedly widening, leading to concerns about the potential for meaningful dialogue.
Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at Hinrich Foundation, expressed uncertainty regarding what could even be on the table for discussion as the summit rapidly approaches. She noted that if additional investigations targeting forced labor practices are launched and China is specifically named, this could aggravate Beijing further and diminish its willingness to engage in negotiations with a U.S. administration perceived as unstable. The investigation comes at a critical time when U.S.
actions against Iran have jeopardized China's energy supplies, adding another layer of complexity to the bilateral talks. While China has strategic oil and gas reserves that provide some insulation, it is not immune to prolonged supply chain disruptions arising from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Alfredo Montufar-Helu, managing director at Ankura Consulting in Beijing, emphasized that a volatile external environment is exactly what Chinese policymakers do not need at this juncture, complicating their calculations as they prepare for the summit. The recent U.S.
and Israeli military strikes that resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have provoked a strong retaliatory response from Tehran. Iran's actions to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway responsible for transporting approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply, could have dire implications for China's energy security. As a major buyer of Iranian crude, China has dispatched a special envoy to the region to mediate, advocating for an immediate ceasefire and a return to diplomatic negotiations. Looking ahead, Trump is scheduled to be in China from March 31 to April 2 for discussions with Xi Jinping, marking the first visit by an American president since Trump's last trip in 2017.
Trade negotiators from both sides are reportedly set to meet in mid-March to lay the groundwork for this significant leaders’ summit. However, expectations for breakthroughs appear limited, with both sides seemingly focused on maintaining the stability that has characterized bilateral relations since late last year.