US-Iran Tensions Drive Oil Prices Up, Impacting Bitcoin's Stability
By John Nada·Apr 13, 2026·4 min read
Renewed US-Iran tensions are driving oil prices above $100, impacting Bitcoin's stability and inflation metrics. Market dynamics indicate potential volatility ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the third week of April on a knife edge as the US-Iran war makes a comeback. A breakdown in US-Iran negotiations sends oil surging above $100 per barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz now blockaded. US PPI inflation data is due amid signs that the oil crisis is far from the only driver of price increases. Bitcoin manages a weekly close above $70,000, but a trader says new lows remain on the roadmap. Profit taking is what keeps Bitcoin unable to hold the $70,000 mark for long, analysis confirms. Overall sell-side pressure is easing, while long-term holders boost BTC exposure on Binance.
The renewed tensions between the US and Iran have once again taken center stage in global markets, especially following the sudden breakdown in negotiations over the weekend. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced sweeping measures to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport. This blockade is seen as a strategic move to control oil transport in the future and reflects a significant escalation in US-Iran relations. In one of several posts on Truth Social, Trump indicated a long-term plan to establish a controlled flow of traffic through the strait, stating, “at some point, we will reach an ‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT’ basis.” Such developments have led trading resource The Kobeissi Letter to comment that Hormuz is now a top priority for the US, indicating a potentially volatile week ahead for oil and broader markets.
In the immediate aftermath of this announcement, market reactions were mixed. While S&P 500 futures dipped by approximately 0.6%, oil prices surged dramatically, trading near $105 per barrel after an 8% increase in a single day. This volatility is indicative of the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments, particularly when they threaten the stability of oil supplies. Analysts are closely monitoring this situation, as further escalation could lead to significant shifts in energy prices, which have a pronounced impact on inflation metrics in the US.
The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) release is expected to reflect the impact of the ongoing conflict. Analysts at Mosaic Asset Company have pointed out that inflation pressures are emerging from factors beyond just rising energy prices. They emphasized that consumer inflation reports released recently showed upward pressure on prices, highlighting that the current crisis is not solely responsible for inflationary trends. This broader context suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to consider tighter monetary policies despite increasing pressure to keep rates low, especially from political figures like Trump. Current data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that no rate cuts are expected before the second half of 2027, which would maintain a tight financial environment that could further complicate Bitcoin's position.
Despite these challenges, Bitcoin managed to close the week above $70,000, albeit with significant volatility. Traders have noted that profit-taking among investors continues to cap Bitcoin's ability to maintain this level for long. Analysis from onchain analytics platform Glassnode confirmed that profit realization spiked whenever Bitcoin approached the $70,000 mark, with over $20 million in profits being realized per hour. This pattern of profit-taking has been consistent since February 2026, raising concerns among market participants about the sustainability of Bitcoin's current price levels and whether further corrections are needed before establishing a stable upward trend.
On the technical front, traders are on the lookout for bullish signals from the relative strength index (RSI) to confirm a potential reversal from the bear market. Previous patterns suggest that a more profound correction may be necessary for Bitcoin to establish a solid baseline. The current market dynamics show a narrowing trading range, which could lead to further price corrections that provide the necessary conditions for a trend reversal. Trader Roman has pointed out that the market still requires at least one more low to signal a reversal, indicating a cautious outlook among analysts.
As Bitcoin navigates these tumultuous waters, its correlation with oil prices and inflation indicators remains critical. The market's reactions to broader geopolitical tensions and economic indicators will significantly influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. A calmer phase has emerged among short-term holders, as profit-taking pressure eases, potentially signaling a healthier market structure. This shift could contribute to a more stable environment for Bitcoin if macroeconomic factors stabilize.
Long-term holders are showing increased exposure on platforms like Binance, which could provide additional support for Bitcoin's price. The realized cap for long-term holders has now surpassed $50 billion, reflecting robust demand and a shift in holding structure. This strengthened demand, combined with easing sell-side pressure, suggests that Bitcoin may be poised for a recovery if the macroeconomic environment stabilizes.