U.S. Institutions Remain Bullish on Bitcoin as Offshore Traders Withdraw
By John Nada·Feb 15, 2026·5 min read
U.S. institutional investors remain bullish on bitcoin as offshore traders withdraw, indicating a divergence in market sentiment and risk appetite.
A notable divergence in global bitcoin market sentiment is emerging as U.S. institutional investors maintain a bullish stance while offshore traders pull back. This contrast is particularly evident in the futures markets, where traders on the CME continue to pay a premium to hold long positions on bitcoin, according to NYDIG’s head of research, Greg Cipolaro.
The futures basis between CME and Deribit reflects varying risk appetites across regions. CME, favored by hedge funds and institutional desks in the U.S., shows higher premiums compared to the offshore counterpart, Deribit. The pronounced drop in the offshore basis indicates a reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure, which Cipolaro notes as a real-time gauge of geographical risk appetite.
This divergence in sentiment is not merely a reflection of short-term trading strategies but also highlights a broader shift in how different market participants perceive the landscape of cryptocurrency. Institutional investors in the U.S. are seemingly undeterred by recent price fluctuations, including a recent dip to $60,000, which could have dissuaded less committed traders. Instead, they appear to be capitalizing on these dips, reinforcing their long-term commitment to bitcoin as a viable asset class.
Concerns about quantum computing undermining bitcoin's cryptographic security have been cited as a reason for volatility; however, NYDIG's analysis finds no supporting evidence. Instead, bitcoin’s performance appears closely linked to publicly traded quantum-computing companies, suggesting a broader decline in appetite for future-driven assets rather than a specific quantum threat. This correlation raises important questions about the interplay between emerging technologies and established financial instruments, further complicating the narrative around bitcoin's stability and viability as a hedge against inflation and a store of value.
The recent recovery of bitcoin’s price, which rebounded above $70,000 after cooling inflation data, highlights the complex interplay of market dynamics. The price movements suggest that institutional investors are likely viewing bitcoin not just as a speculative asset but as part of a broader portfolio strategy that includes a diverse range of assets. The positive sentiment among U.S. institutions could be seen as a strong signal to the market, indicating confidence in bitcoin's long-term prospects despite prevailing uncertainties.
Yet, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still indicates “extreme fear” among market participants, reflecting deeper anxiety despite the price recovery. This index, which aggregates various metrics to gauge market sentiment, reveals that while some investors are capitalizing on the recent price fluctuations, a significant portion of the market remains cautious. The $8.7 billion in bitcoin losses realized in the last week may signal a capitulation event, prompting a shift of supply to stronger hands, which could further stabilize the market in the long run.
As institutional investors in the U.S. continue to embrace bitcoin, the contrasting behavior of offshore traders raises significant questions about regional market dynamics and risk tolerance. The ongoing divergence in sentiment underscores the complexities within the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency trading, suggesting that institutional confidence could drive further market developments while offshore players recalibrate their strategies.
The implications of these trends are profound. For one, the retreat of offshore traders could result in a more concentrated market, potentially leading to increased volatility as institutional investors gain more influence. This shift highlights the importance of understanding geographical differences in market behavior, as the divergence in sentiment and risk appetite could create opportunities for savvy investors willing to navigate the complexities of the market.
Additionally, as U.S. institutional investors continue to hold strong positions in bitcoin, this could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny and a push for clearer guidelines surrounding cryptocurrency trading and investment. The actions of these institutions may prompt regulators to consider the implications of a more centralized market, particularly as institutional investment increases the stakes involved.
Furthermore, the dynamics surrounding the futures market illustrate the intricate relationship between spot prices and derivatives trading. The premium U.S. traders are willing to pay on the CME indicates a strong belief in the future value of bitcoin, which is not necessarily mirrored in the offshore markets. This could point to a fundamental difference in how institutions versus retail traders perceive the potential for bitcoin's growth.
As the landscape continues to evolve, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for all market participants. The divergence in sentiment between U.S. institutions and offshore traders can be seen as an opportunity for both groups to reassess their strategies and risk management approaches. For institutional investors, the continued bullish sentiment may encourage more robust investment strategies, while offshore traders may need to recalibrate their expectations and strategies in light of the changing market conditions.
The interplay between market sentiment, regulatory developments, and technological advancements will likely shape the future of bitcoin trading. Institutions are increasingly recognizing the potential of bitcoin as a long-term investment, and their continued participation in the market could lead to further price stabilization and increased legitimacy for the cryptocurrency as a whole.