NATO Faces a $1 Trillion Defense Test — Can Europe Deliver?
By John Nada·Jul 6, 2026·3 min read
NATO's $1 trillion defense target faces scrutiny in Turkey. Europe must act fast to maintain U.S. partnership under Trump's unpredictable watch.
NATO's new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035 is under intense scrutiny this week as leaders convene in Turkey. The focus is on whether Europe's defense boom can translate into real military power swiftly enough to keep the U.S., under President Donald Trump, committed, according to CNBC Business.
This Ankara summit shifts from mere pledges to plans for implementation, examining procurement, industrial growth, and Ukraine's support. Trump's unpredictability adds another layer of complexity, with NATO's structure heavily relying on American power for decades. Yet, as Max Bergmann from the Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed out, the crucial issue remains: how will Europe strategize its defense without the U.S. at the center?
European governments face a tough balancing act. They need to show unity and ramp up spending while navigating fiscal constraints and political challenges. France and the U.K., for instance, recognize the need but struggle with budget pressures, CNBC Business noted. Meanwhile, smaller nations like Poland and the Baltic states have moved faster, spurred by proximity to Russia.
The defense landscape is evolving rapidly, especially with Ukraine's agility in adapting modern warfare tactics like drones and counter-drone technologies. Seth Jones from CSIS highlighted Ukraine's innovative strides, shifting NATO's role from aiding Ukraine to learning from it.
The summit also comes as NATO faces pressure to maintain its support for Ukraine and adapt to a battlefield shaped by rapid technological development in drones, air defenses, and industrial capacity. Ukraine is expected to be central in Ankara, with debate focused on long-term military support, Kyiv's own defense industry, and what NATO can learn from the country after more than four years of full-scale war.
Turkey, hosting the summit, aims to spotlight its strategic importance. President Erdogan sees an opportunity to bolster Turkey's defense industry and secure procurement advantages as Europe's military investments rise. This comes amid concerns of EU-centric defense spending potentially sidelining non-EU NATO members like Turkey.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has focused on keeping Trump engaged while moving burden-shifting plans forward. But Bergmann said there has been little discussion of a 'plan B' if the U.S. decides it does not want to remain deeply involved.
Franke pointed to Franco-German defense projects as an example of how national political incentives can slow cooperation, even when joint production makes strategic sense. The summit follows months of tension between Washington and European allies, including Trump's frustration over what he viewed as insufficient European support during the Iran conflict.
Turkey's role as host adds another layer of complexity. Like previous host countries, Turkey is likely to use the summit to put its own security concerns and defense industry on the agenda. For President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a successful summit would likely demonstrate Turkey's centrality, avoid a major diplomatic breakdown, and strengthen Ankara's case for access to defense procurement as European military spending rises.
Finally, NATO summits were not traditionally annual events, but they have been held every year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Bergmann said it would not surprise him if this were the last NATO summit of Trump's presidency, amid uncertainty over a tentative Albania summit next year and the 2028 U.S. election calendar. That possibility could raise the stakes. If this summit is a 'last hurrah,' the message Trump chooses to send at this NATO summit could matter well beyond Turkey.