JPMorgan Slashes Q4 Gold Forecast — Drops Price Target by 25%
By John Nada·Jul 5, 2026·2 min read
JPMorgan slashes its Q4 gold price forecast by 25% to $4,500 per ounce, reflecting caution over weak demand. Long-term outlook stays bullish.
JPMorgan has sharply reduced its gold price target for the fourth quarter of 2026 by 25%, recalibrating its forecast to $4,500 per ounce from an earlier $6,000. This move is tied to a drop in demand from key sectors, with the bank citing weaker purchasing power among gold's major demand centers, according to Yahoo Finance.
This recalibration speaks volumes about the cautious stance JPMorgan is taking in the short term, even as it maintains a bullish long-term perspective on gold. The bank now projects gold to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter, gradually rising to $4,500 in the fourth. Yet, this optimistic tone for the longer term is anchored by structural forces, including increased gold reserves by central banks and sustained institutional investments for portfolio hedging.
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The decline in the forecast isn't happening in a vacuum. Gold's sensitivity to real interest rate fluctuations has intensified, limiting its near-term price potential. So, expect range-bound trading before any significant upside in the second half of the year, as the bank suggests. Meanwhile, other financial heavyweights like Goldman Sachs and UBS hold a more bullish view, projecting $4,900 and $5,200 per ounce by the end of 2026 and over the next 12 months, respectively.
Gold's current trading value stands at $4,175, representing a small 1.26% rise over the last day but still a 26% decline from its all-time high of about $5,600 earlier this year. Morgan Stanley, aligned with UBS, also targets $5,200 in the second half of 2026 but emphasizes the need for robust ETF inflows to propel gold further.
Despite short-term caution, JPMorgan's faith in gold's future seems unwavered. Central bank acquisitions and institutional hedging provide a sturdy foundation. The precious metal's role as a safe-haven asset and alternative reserve currency appears intact for years to come. In the shifting sands of global markets, it's these enduring forces that speak to gold's lasting appeal.