Gold Climbs 2.3% Weekly Amid Fed Rate Speculation
By John Nada·Jul 3, 2026·3 min read
Gold claims a 2.3% weekly gain, buoyed by weaker U.S. payroll data and shifting Fed rate expectations. Precious metals join the rally.
"Spot gold prices rose by 1.4% on Friday morning," CNBC Business reports, setting the glittering metal on course for a 2.3% weekly rise — its first in five weeks. Trading at approximately $4,182.28 an ounce by early morning ET, gold's positive turn comes after months of downward pressure. Front-month U.S. gold futures mirrored the optimism with a 1.5% rise on an intraday basis.
Gold's recent struggles aren't lost on investors. The metal has faltered with fears of rising inflation, a resilient dollar, and central banks' hawkish stances post-U.S.-Iran conflict. The yellow metal managed its worst quarterly performance in 13 years through June. Once the darling during January’s highs above $5,300, gold now deals with tarnished allure, still down 22% from those peaks.
But this week, a glimmer of hope. U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released on Thursday undershot expectations — just 57,000 jobs added in June compared to May's revised 129,000, and well below the 115,000 forecasted. This employment lag has shifted market sentiment. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September, tracked via the CME's FedWatch tool, has waned from 65% to 53.5%. A softer rate outlook breathed life into gold's price action.
Silver, too, joined the precious metals rally. Spot silver surged 2.9% to $62.77 an ounce, targeting a 6.7% weekly gain. Silver futures for August delivery also rose, up by 3.5%. Platinum and palladium weren’t left behind, posting 2.8% and 1% increases, respectively.
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Strategists at OCBC weigh in: “The softer-than-expected payrolls data helps reduce the hawkish tail risk.” They’ve adjusted their gold outlook from cautious to “cautiously constructive.” Real yields and USD dynamics remain pivotal. “A more durable recovery in gold needs real yields to ease more decisively, ETF/investor demand to stabilize and Fed to step back on its hawkish rhetoric,” they suggest.
However, they caution that the path forward is fraught. Unemployment steadies, and inflation risks aren't retreating, keeping the Fed's hawkish potential alive. Gold’s upside risks need careful navigation.
Not so long ago, 2025 saw gold and silver in a frenzy. Their meteoric rises — 66% for gold and 135% for silver — seem like distant memories. But volatility in early 2026 cast shadows on those peaks. Silver futures, for instance, took a historic dive in January, while gold's safe haven status feels tested amid geopolitical strains.
For now, gold is enjoying a moment in the sun. Yet, its broader journey depends on economic signals and central bank whispers. Markets listen closely.