Bitwise Files for ETFs to Bet on 2028 Presidential Election Outcomes
By John Nada·Feb 18, 2026·4 min read
Bitwise Asset Management aims to introduce ETFs that enable betting on the 2028 U.S. presidential election outcomes, marking a novel intersection of finance and politics.
Bitwise Asset Management is set to launch a new category of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that will allow investors to speculate on the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections, starting with the 2028 election. Under the branding 'Prediction Shares,' Bitwise has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for two ETFs that will track prediction markets focused on the Democratic and Republican candidates' chances of winning. The introduction of these ETFs marks a significant development in the intersection of finance and political forecasting.
By offering this innovative product, Bitwise aims to tap into the increasing popularity of prediction markets, which have gained significant traction in recent years. Following the last U.S. election, these markets have reportedly processed trading volumes of around $10 billion monthly, showcasing their growing acceptance among investors looking to gain insights into electoral outcomes. Under the 'Prediction Shares' branding, Bitwise has filed to list two ETFs that will specifically target betting on the outcome of the 2028 presidential election.
One ETF will focus on a Democratic winner, while the other will bet on a Republican victory. This dual structure allows investors to align their investment strategies with their political beliefs or to hedge against the outcomes they perceive as likely. By investing in these ETFs, users can participate in the political forecasting market without needing to navigate the complexities of prediction platforms like Polymarket. This move follows Bitwise's earlier introduction of four equivalent products aimed at predicting outcomes for the 2026 mid-term elections, which will include predictions for both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Each of these ETFs will strategically invest their assets in prediction market bets that correspond to the political outcomes represented by the respective fund. This innovative investment vehicle mirrors how a bitcoin ETF allows exposure to cryptocurrency without the need for direct ownership, providing a similar convenience for political predictions. The rise of prediction markets has been driven by their ability to aggregate information and sentiments regarding political events, making them an appealing option for investors who want to capitalize on uncertainty. By leveraging the predictive power of these markets, Bitwise seeks to provide a structured and regulated means for investors to engage with political outcomes.
This could potentially reshape how investors think about and engage with the political landscape, merging traditional finance with emerging market concepts in a unique way. As Bitwise enters this space, it aims to replicate the success it has seen with cryptocurrency ETFs, which have opened the door to crypto investment for a wider array of prospective investors, including institutions. The company's foray into prediction markets could democratize access to political betting, making it more appealing to both retail and institutional investors alike. The broader implications of this trend indicate a shift in how financial markets can interact with and reflect societal events, such as elections.
Moreover, the introduction of these ETFs could help further legitimize prediction markets as a viable investment strategy, positioning them alongside more traditional financial products. By bringing a structured and regulated approach to the often chaotic world of political betting, Bitwise's initiative may establish a new standard for how investors engage with and profit from forecasting political events. In an era where traditional polling methods have faced scrutiny for their accuracy, prediction markets offer a fresh perspective by allowing individuals to place monetary bets on outcomes. This financial stake often leads to more accurate representations of public sentiment and electoral dynamics, as market participants have a vested interest in the accuracy of their predictions.
As such, the development of these ETFs could not only provide investors with an opportunity to profit but also contribute to a more nuanced understanding of political trends. The launch of these ETFs also arrives at a time when the financial industry is increasingly exploring the tokenization of assets and the integration of blockchain technology into traditional finance. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has acknowledged its responsibility to engage in tokenization, indicating a broader industry trend towards the digitization of financial products. As these developments unfold, Bitwise's prediction market ETFs may serve as a pioneering example of how financial instruments can evolve in tandem with technological advancements.
With the SEC's approval of these ETFs, Bitwise could potentially carve out a new niche within the financial markets, attracting a diverse range of investors who are eager to engage with political forecasting in a regulated environment. The success of these products will likely depend on investor interest and market dynamics leading up to the 2028 presidential election, as well as the performance of Bitwise's previous mid-term election ETFs. Overall, Bitwise's strategic move to launch prediction market ETFs signifies a bold step towards integrating political predictions into mainstream finance, offering investors new tools to navigate the complexities of electoral outcomes.