Bitcoin's pre-FOMC rally hit a wall at $90,000, facing tough resistance and tepid ETF demand. Despite this setback, data indicates that upward momentum could gain strength if the BTC/USD pair breaks above $93,000. According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin bulls need to convert the $90,000-$93,000 range into new support. Currently, the BTC/USD is trapped between $86,000 and $90,000, a range it has occupied since January 20.

Analyst Aditya Singh from Crypto India noted that Bitcoin is returning to the $86,000-$87,000 range, emphasizing that the critical support level is the 100-week moving average at $87,500. Cointelegraph's report highlighted that the primary resistance is located between the 50-day simple moving average at $90,000 and the 100-day SMA at $94,000. Analyst Jelle remarked that Bitcoin is not as weak as some might think, suggesting that reclaiming $93,000 would put bulls back in control.

Moreover, the potential for a breakout hinges on a resurgence in institutional demand, which has waned due to significant outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data from Glassnode indicates that US spot Bitcoin flows are stabilizing, with the 30-day average moving back toward neutral after a period of sustained outflows. This shift could signify a reduction in selling pressure, but the market still relies more on spot holder conviction than on fresh ETF-driven demand.

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Capriole Investments reported a sharp decline in the number of Bitcoin treasury companies purchasing BTC daily, further illustrating the downturn in institutional interest. Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury holder, remains an outlier, recently acquiring 2,932 BTC. This purchase boosted Strategy's total holdings to over 712,647 BTC, acquired for around $54.19 billion.

Bitcoin's chances of breaking above the critical $90,000 mark will improve as institutional demand and ETF inflows pick up. Analysts believe that if these flows can accelerate into a consistent positive trend, it would bolster the case for a bullish continuation. As Cointelegraph stated, a break and close above the moving averages could pave the way for a rally toward the $98,000 resistance zone.

In summary, Bitcoin's current price action showcases the delicate balance between resistance and potential breakout. Traders will need to keep a close eye on institutional behaviors, as renewed interest and ETF inflows could significantly alter the market's trajectory. The next few days will be crucial for Bitcoin as it navigates these challenges and opportunities.