Bitcoin Faces Potential Drop to $55,000 Amid Capital Outflows and Macro Risks
By John Nada·Feb 24, 2026·4 min read
Bitcoin's price has dipped below $62,900 amid analyst warnings of a potential drop to $55,000 due to capital outflows and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Bitcoin extended its slide on Tuesday, briefly trading below $62,900 and down roughly 4% on the day, as analysts warned the market remains prone to a sharper "flush" amid sustained capital outflows and mounting macro risks. The move follows earlier weakness highlighted in The Block’s coverage of bitcoin testing $63,000, with broader capitulation still seen as possible. Some market commentators have described trading conditions as "extreme fear." Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, said bitcoin has exited its consolidation phase and entered a new bearish cycle, citing a mix of geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and tightening liquidity. "This toxic cocktail of economic, political, and geopolitical shocks is aggressively flushing capital out of the crypto market," Hasn wrote, adding that buyers have so far only appeared for short-lived corrective bounces.
He sees the $53,000 to $55,000 range as a likely downside target if selling pressure persists. Matt Howells-Barby, VP at Kraken, noted bitcoin is on track to close six consecutive weekly red candles for the first time since May 2022. He echoed Hasn’s view that renewed tariff uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions are weighing on risk assets broadly. "The $60k level is a key support level that the bulls are watching closely," Howells-Barby said.
"If that level fails to hold, we could potentially see a move into the mid-to-low $50K range." This perspective highlights the critical nature of the $60,000 support level, which has become a focal point for market participants eager to gauge the future trajectory of Bitcoin. If this support fails, traders might brace for a more significant decline. Macro conditions have intensified the crypto market slump. New U.S.
tariff measures, shifting global trade dynamics, and rising geopolitical risks have dampened risk appetite across asset classes. The confluence of these factors has not only impacted Bitcoin but has also led to a broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets. Amid the market rout, spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows, with some $4 billion pulled from global crypto exchange-traded products over that stretch. This trend signals a growing reluctance among investors to engage with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies amid the current economic climate.
Glassnode data cited by BRN Head of Research Timothy Misir shows U.S. spot ETF balances have fallen by roughly 100,000 BTC since the October cycle high, underscoring institutional de-risking. This notable decrease reflects a broader trend of capital withdrawal from the cryptocurrency space, as institutions reassess their positions in light of deteriorating market conditions. The outflows not only indicate a loss of confidence but also a strategic retreat by large holders who may be seeking to mitigate potential losses.
Onchain and derivatives data also point to a defensive market structure. Active addresses have fallen below their typical range, realized capital continues to contract, and unrealized losses dominate, signaling limited conviction and thinning market participation. The lack of active engagement from participants further exacerbates the volatility, as fewer transactions can lead to sharp price swings. While aggressive sell pressure has eased at the margin, spot volumes have cooled materially, leaving price action vulnerable to sharp swings.
"Derivatives confirm contraction," Misir wrote. "The 90-day SMA of Change in Open Interest [%] across top crypto assets has remained negative since October 2025. Speculative premium continues to compress. Leverage appetite has yet to return." This contraction in open interest indicates that traders are becoming more cautious, opting to reduce leverage in a declining market.
Corporate treasuries are also under pressure. One strategy is reportedly sitting on roughly $9 billion in unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings at current prices. The significant unrealized losses reflect the broader market downturn's impact on corporate strategies, which may have initially sought to capitalize on Bitcoin's price appreciation. In a similar vein, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, noted as the largest corporate Ethereum treasury, is facing estimated unrealized losses exceeding $8 billion based on public disclosures and current market conditions.
This situation highlights the broader challenges faced by institutions that have heavily invested in cryptocurrencies without adequate risk management strategies in place. Yet not all signals point to capitulation. Glassnode data show more than 400,000 BTC accumulated between $60,000 and $70,000 during the recent downturn, indicating aggressive dip buying in that band. This accumulation could suggest that certain investors see value in Bitcoin at these levels, potentially providing a cushion against further declines.
Mining difficulty also recently adjusted higher after a sharp prior drop, a dynamic that Charles Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli said has historically coincided with selloffs nearing exhaustion, as miners resume operations. This adjustment might signal a potential stabilization in the market, as miners become more active in response to price changes. Still, liquidity remains thin and momentum fragile.