Bitcoin Faces Historic Monthly Drop Amid Market Stress
By John Nada·Feb 16, 2026·4 min read
Bitcoin is poised to experience its longest losing streak since 2018, with macroeconomic pressures and ETF outflows driving the decline. Market dynamics are shifting as Bitcoin trades more like a risk asset.
Bitcoin is on track for its longest losing streak since 2018, with a potential fifth consecutive monthly decline looming as February progresses. If the month closes negatively, it would equal Bitcoin's most bearish period in history, highlighting a significant shift in market dynamics where Bitcoin now behaves more like a rates-and-risk instrument post-ETF.
The cryptocurrency has seen continuous downward pressure, trading approximately 44-45% lower than its peak of $126,000 in October 2025. As of mid-February, Bitcoin is struggling around $68,800, down 12.6% for the month. With monthly drawdowns being tracked, the stakes are high: if March does not see a recovery above $80,000, Bitcoin will match its record six-month drawdown from January 2017 to August 2018.
This extended decline coincides with changing expectations around interest rates, which have made risk assets more vulnerable to shifts in monetary policy. Recent data suggests that the Fed funds futures are leaning toward a hold through March 2026. This environment has led to persistent negative flows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, with reports of approximately $2 billion in net outflows over three weeks, exacerbating the downward trend without a specific crypto catalyst.
The situation is particularly concerning as Bitcoin has closed lower in each of the past four months, signaling a consistent trend that could further erode investor confidence. February opened near $78,626 but has seen a decline into the high $60,000s. The current trading price of around $68,800 reflects a stark contrast to the October peak and raises questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin's value in the current economic climate.
On-chain analysis from Glassnode reveals critical price levels that traders are monitoring. The True Market Mean sits around $80,200, serving as resistance, while the Realized Price near $55,800 has historically indicated re-engagement zones during deeper market resets. Currently, a dense cost-basis zone between $66,900 and $70,600 is acting as a near-term reference point for market participants. The market appears to be weighing the potential for a rebound against the risk of further declines as it navigates these critical levels.
The dynamics of ETF flows are particularly noteworthy in this context. Recent trading sessions have skewed negative, reflecting a broader trend wherein redemptions and risk-parity-style de-risking activities continue to pressure Bitcoin's price. This highlights the growing influence of ETFs on Bitcoin's market behavior, as they become a significant factor in determining price movements. The persistent negative flows underscore a critical juncture for Bitcoin, as it appears increasingly tied to traditional financial market metrics rather than operating independently.
Looking ahead, the scenario remains fluid. If outflows from ETFs slow and macro conditions stabilize, Bitcoin could reclaim the $80,200 level. However, if the cost-basis support fails and risk-off sentiment continues, a retest of around $60,000 could materialize, bringing the $55,800 region into play. Analysts have pointed out that the market is currently debating a path back toward the $80,200 mean area versus a slide toward the $55,800 realized-price region. Each of these potential moves represents a significant percentage swing, emphasizing the volatility that characterizes the current market.
Analysts are also considering worst-case scenarios, with projections suggesting a potential drop to as low as $31,000 in an extreme crypto winter similar to past bear markets. These forecasts, while not consensus, serve as boundary markers indicating how much further the market could decline under current conditions. The end of February will be a critical period, with the possibility of a red close solidifying a five-month streak of losses and emphasizing Bitcoin's transition into a rates-and-risk-driven asset rather than a standalone market.
The focus on cost-basis levels and ETF flows underscores the interconnectedness between cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. Investors are now keenly aware that decisions made in the macro environment are directly influencing Bitcoin's price action, framing it as a significant player in global capital movement. As market sentiment shifts, the need for clarity and stability has never been more pressing for Bitcoin holders, who are watching closely as the landscape evolves.
In light of these developments, the Bitcoin community must remain vigilant. The implications of a sustained downturn could resonate beyond immediate price drops, affecting long-term investment strategies and the broader perception of cryptocurrency as a viable asset class. As the calendar turns to March, the market's response will be pivotal in determining Bitcoin's trajectory for the remainder of the year. Investors will be closely monitoring these developments, particularly as the interplay between macroeconomic factors and crypto-specific dynamics continues to unfold.